The risk profile of the retail industry is shifting rapidly due to factors like supply chain volatility, cargo theft, and ransomware attacks. Market conditions are mixed — while overall commercial rates have eased in places, lines like casualty and umbrella/excess continue to hold firm. In 2026, retailers with greater exposure to physical crime, hazardous or high-liability products, or weak risk management controls may face tighter underwriting and higher deductibles. Staying ahead of market trends and strengthening loss control measures may be able to help retail organizations secure more favorable insurance terms.
This article outlines the key trends shaping retail risk in 2026, explores their implications for insurance, and provides practical strategies for risk management and coverage.
Geopolitical Risk
Many retailers are reimagining their supply chains with strategies like offshoring, nearshoring, and supplier diversification due to factors like ongoing geopolitical tension, trade policy, and tariff pressures.
As supply chain concerns and geopolitical conditions evolve, organizations should review how their current insurance programs protect their goods and operations. Building visibility across supply chains, mapping critical suppliers, and identifying single points of failure can help mitigate risk and demonstrate insurability. Modeling scenarios like transportation delays or supplier shutdowns can also help retailers understand where backup plans or alternative suppliers may be needed.
Organized Crime
With economic pressures rising, retailers may begin to see an increase in criminal activity. Organized crime is becoming increasingly sophisticated and widespread, with organized retail crime (ORC) groups frequently targeting high-value goods and showing increasing levels of violence in various types of operations.
In a 2025 study from the National Retail Federation, 67% of retailers reported the involvement of a transnational ORC group in thefts against their company during the past year. These crimes go beyond physical merchandise theft – more than half of retailers surveyed also reported increases in phone scams (70%), digital and ecommerce frauds (55%), and cargo or supply chain thefts (50%).
It is essential to review crime policies to ensure that definitions and sublimits line up with modern theft patterns and organized crime strategies. For example, coverage could be affected depending on the definitions of robbery, burglary, and third-party theft. As economic pressures increase the risk of crime both externally and internally, retailers should also consider protecting themselves against internal theft with employee dishonesty provisions. Furthermore, retail organizations should evaluate potential general liability and workers’ compensation exposures from injuries that occur during theft attempts and consider how umbrella coverage might apply to severe or multiple-injury losses. Retailers should also consider whether their coverage aligns with today’s cargo crime risks by evaluating inland marine, STP, motor truck cargo and CBI policies for any gaps.
In addition to evaluating your insurance coverage, it’s also important to adopt robust risk management policies, including a thorough approach to security, de-escalation training, cash-handling controls, and close coordination with law enforcement. For supply chain crime, strong transportation security practices like driver identity verification and GPS monitoring can reduce the risk of cargo theft.
Cyber Risk
E-commerce is becoming increasingly complex, providing more entry points from which threat actors can launch cyber attacks. Potential targets include point-of-sale systems, third-party software integrations, and e-commerce platforms, which can affect both physical and digital storefronts and trigger losses spanning multiple policy lines.
With cybercrime losses reaching $16.6 billion in 2024 according to the FBI’s 2024 Internet Crime Report – a 33% increase from the previous year – the cyber insurance market’s recent stability may be challenged as cybercrime becomes an increasingly significant business risk.
Retailers should ensure that all vendors meet robust cybersecurity standards in addition to evaluating cybersecurity across their entire supply chain. In order to secure favorable insurance terms, you may need to implement risk management processes like multifactor authentication, privileged access controls, incident response planning, and more. To avoid coverage gaps, ensure that cyber insurance is aligned with crime, property and business interruption (BI) insurance policies.
Looking Ahead
In the coming year, the retail industry can expect to be impacted by supply chain volatility, increasingly sophisticated organized crime operations, and cybersecurity-related challenges. By staying up to date on these trends and adopting robust risk management practices, retail businesses can position themselves for success in 2026 and beyond.
Schedule a 30-minute retail risk checkup to identify gaps in your coverage and controls.
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