A 2027 loan maturity shouldn’t be viewed simply as a refinancing event. For many real estate owners, it will be a strategic capital decision that affects liquidity, flexibility, and the asset’s role within the broader portfolio.
While lending conditions have improved, many lenders remain focused on asset performance, cash flow coverage, valuation, and sponsor strength. The primary challenge isn’t simply whether financing is available, but whether the next capital structure supports the property’s role in the owner’s long-term strategy.
Estimates vary by source and methodology, but industry data points to a significant refinancing wave in 2027. The Mortgage Bankers Association projects $652 billion in commercial and multifamily mortgage maturities, while S&P Global Market Intelligence estimates the broader commercial real estate maturity wall could peak at $1.26 trillion. While the scale is significant, owners should focus on whether each asset can support the next phase of their business plan.
Early planning gives owners more room to identify capital needs, preserve flexibility, and make informed investment decisions before maturity dates limit available options.
Start the Refinancing Conversation Before Maturity
Waiting until a loan approaches maturity can limit options and reduce negotiating leverage. Early planning allows owners to understand current underwriting standards, evaluate financing alternatives, and address operational or capital issues before deadlines become urgent. Even high-performing properties deserve an early review when market values, borrowing costs, or cash flow have changed.
Although lenders remain active, underwriting standards often result in lower leverage than many owners had several years ago. CBRE’s Q2 2026 data showed average loan-to-value ratios at 59.6%, debt-service coverage ratios at 1.43, and debt yields at 10.2%. As a result, refinancing proceeds may not fully replace existing debt balances. Understanding that possibility early can help owners avoid last-minute capital decisions.
The Equity Gap
For many owners, the most important refinancing question may not be when the loan matures, but whether a new loan will generate enough proceeds to repay the existing debt balance. While financing markets have improved, many lenders continue to apply more conservative underwriting standards than those in place when a property was originally financed.
This potential shortfall, often referred to as the equity gap, can create a significant capital planning challenge. A property may be performing well operationally and still experience a refinancing gap due to lower loan-to-value ratios, higher interest rates, changing valuation assumptions, increased insurance costs, or lender requirements for stronger debt-service coverage.
For example, a borrower with a $20 million loan coming due may discover that current underwriting supports only $16 million to $17 million of new financing. The question then becomes how to address the remaining capital need.
Depending on the asset, market conditions, and ownership objectives, potential solutions may include contributing additional equity, pursuing preferred equity or mezzanine financing, seeking an extension, recapitalizing with a joint-venture partner, restructuring debt, or considering a sale.
The earlier an owner identifies a potential equity gap, the more alternatives are typically available. Early analysis allows ownership groups to evaluate multiple scenarios, assess tax and transaction cost implications, and select a strategy that aligns with broader portfolio objectives rather than reacting under deadline pressure.
Connect Refinancing Decisions to Portfolio Strategy
Refinancing shouldn’t be evaluated one property at a time. Capital committed to one asset affects liquidity, growth opportunities, and investment decisions across the entire portfolio.
Many organizations are using upcoming maturities as an opportunity to reassess capital allocation. Some will refinance. Others may recapitalize, reposition assets, redeploy capital, or exit investments that no longer support strategic objectives.
The most effective strategies connect financing choices to broader portfolio goals rather than treating maturity dates as isolated events.
Key Questions to Address Today
Before beginning lender discussions, owners should focus on a few critical questions:
- What refinancing proceeds are likely under current underwriting standards?
- How large is the potential equity gap?
- How will future capital expenditures affect borrowing capacity?
- Does the property’s debt structure support the ownership group’s long-term investment strategy?
- Are there alternatives that create a stronger economic outcome than traditional refinance?
Insurance costs, property performance, valuation assumptions, and future capital needs should also be incorporated into the analysis. According to First Street, average commercial real estate insurance premiums have increased more than 150% since 2017, adding pressure that can reduce NOI, weaken debt-service coverage, influence valuation, and affect refinancing capacity.
Scenario planning can help owners understand how different interest rate, valuation, and cash flow assumptions may affect refinancing proceeds, capital requirements, debt service, hold periods, and capital decision timing.
How CBIZ Can Help
A 2027 maturity shouldn’t be viewed simply as a refinancing deadline. It should be seen as an opportunity to evaluate whether an asset’s capital structure continues to support the owner’s objectives. CBIZ helps real estate owners assess refinancing alternatives, model potential equity gaps, evaluate tax implications, review capital structures, and compare strategic options before maturity dates limit available options. Owners who begin the process early are more likely to preserve flexibility, address capital gaps proactively, and position their portfolios for long-term success.
To evaluate how 2027 refinancing conditions may affect your portfolio, connect with a member of the CBIZ real estate team.
Frequently Asked Questions
Early preparation gives owners more flexibility to evaluate refinancing options, identify potential capital shortfalls, and address asset-level issues before maturity deadlines narrow available choices. Starting the process sooner can also help ownership groups understand current lender expectations and compare alternatives beyond a traditional refinance.
A refinancing shortfall can occur when current underwriting supports a smaller new loan than the balance coming due. This may happen because of lower loan-to-value ratios, higher interest rates, changing valuation assumptions, increased insurance costs, or stronger debt-service coverage requirements.
Capital used to support one property can influence liquidity, future investment opportunities, and the owner’s long-term strategy across the portfolio. Evaluating maturities in the context of broader goals can help owners decide whether to refinance, recapitalize, reposition, sell, or redeploy capital elsewhere.
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