As 2026 approaches, consumer product companies — including manufacturers, distributors, importers, retailers, and e-commerce operators — find themselves navigating a fast-moving and competitive landscape. In this environment, resilience, agility, and insight are essential for sustained growth.
CBIZ works with hundreds of consumer and industrial products companies nationwide. Drawing from current industry data, public benchmarks, and our direct experience, we present key expectations and strategies for middle market consumer goods companies in the year ahead.
Economic Environment and Market Benchmarks
Middle-market organizations in the United States contribute nearly one-third of private sector gross domestic product (GDP), generating over $10 trillion in annual revenues, according to the National Center for the Middle Market. The consumer goods industry is projected to maintain its positive momentum into 2026, following an estimated 4%–5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2025.
E-commerce remains a central driver, with annual growth rates of 9%–12% continuing to outpace other retail channels. As omnichannel strategies mature and technology further transforms retail and distribution, both manufacturers and retailers are advised to position themselves to capture these emerging opportunities.
Recent data from 2025 highlights that private equity activity in consumer goods and retail remains steady, even as overall transaction volume dipped slightly. In the second quarter of 2025, there were 1,203 deals, and median EBITDA multiples rose to 9.15X from 8.92X in the previous year, indicating strengthened buyer confidence in high-quality, scalable businesses with resilient demand. Strategic buyers led most activity, but financial sponsors concentrated their investments in companies offering robust growth potential and strong cash flows. M&A transactions were prominently carried out among branded retail, hospitality, and other consumer sectors noted for high customer loyalty and margins.
Key Takeaways as of Mid-2025:
- Transaction volume has dipped slightly but remains robust.
- Median EBITDA multiples for the consumer sector climbed to approximately 9.2X.
- Private equity remains active, targeting high-quality, scalable assets.
Furthermore, middle-market consumer companies continue to operate within an environment of elevated commercial lending interest rates. Credit standards have tightened, and lending risk premiums have increased—particularly for manufacturing and retail. Even as base rates soften following the end of the Federal Reserve rate hike cycle, spreads remain high due to enduring economic and policy uncertainties.
Evolving Consumer Preferences and Channel Performance
The shift toward digital channels is persistent. U.S. online retail sales accounted for 21% of total retail in 2023—a figure projected to reach 25% by 2026 (U.S. Census Bureau, Statista). Sustainability is another key trend: a 2023 NielsenIQ study found that 78% of U.S. consumers now factor sustainability into purchasing decisions, with 62% willing to pay a premium for environmentally responsible products.
The trend toward the hyper-personalization of goods will continue, with generative AI becoming increasingly nimble and reliable. For example, the global personalized nutrition market is projected to grow at a rate of 14.6% from 2025 to 2030, according to Grand View Research. AI will remain an essential tool for gaining insight into consumer needs, enhancing the accuracy of demand forecasts, and supply chain optimization. In terms of brand preferences, private-label and value-tier brands recorded a 9.3% increase in unit sales last year, while premium brands grew 5.8% (IRI, industry reporting). CBIZ clients have seen that companies deploying omnichannel strategies, with digital integration, consistently outperform single-channel peers.
Operational Metrics and Industry Challenges
Supply chains continue to adapt in the face of global disruptions. According to industry benchmarks, 68% of middle-market businesses are diversifying their supplier base, and nearly half are investing in supply chain technology or improvements.
Inventory turnover for middle-market manufacturers and distributors averages 5.2 times per year; best-in-class organizations report 6.5 turns (APICS, public company data). Labor costs remain elevated, with operations and logistics wages rising at an estimated 4–5% annually.
Transaction Activity and Company Valuations
Middle-market M&A remains healthy. In recent years, average deal sizes have exceeded $250 million, with EBITDA multiples of 9X–12X depending on business quality and growth prospects (PitchBook, S&P Global). CBIZ offers clients comprehensive support in due diligence, valuation, and integration for transactions aimed at growth through acquisitions or partnerships.
Risk Management and Regulatory Changes
Risk mitigation is increasingly vital. The National Center for the Middle Market reported that 26% of midsized firms experienced a cyber breach in the past two years—a sharp increase over previous periods.
Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) reporting is becoming standard practice, with 54% of middle market companies now publishing sustainability or responsibility reports. Investors and consumers are driving greater expectations for transparency (Ernst & Young, company disclosures).
CBIZ assists clients in risk assessment, management, regulatory compliance, and cybersecurity. With proven frameworks and expertise, we help companies anticipate and counteract both regulatory and reputational risks.
Planning for 2026 and Beyond
As the industry faces continuing disruption, sustainable growth will depend on strategic adoption of technology, robust risk management, and adaptation to evolving consumer expectations. It will be critical to determine strategies that help offset economic uncertainty by focusing on product personalization, efficiencies, and seamless customer experiences. Middle-market consumer goods companies that embrace agility and innovation are best positioned to thrive in 2026 and beyond.
© Copyright CBIZ, Inc. All rights reserved. Use of the material contained herein without the express written consent of the firms is prohibited by law. This publication is distributed with the understanding that CBIZ is not rendering legal, accounting or other professional advice. The reader is advised to contact a tax professional prior to taking any action based upon this information. CBIZ assumes no liability whatsoever in connection with the use of this information and assumes no obligation to inform the reader of any changes in tax laws or other factors that could affect the information contained herein. Material contained in this publication is informational and promotional in nature and not intended to be specific financial, tax or consulting advice. Readers are advised to seek professional consultation regarding circumstances affecting their organization.
“CBIZ” is the brand name under which CBIZ CPAs P.C. and CBIZ, Inc. and its subsidiaries, including CBIZ Advisors, LLC, provide professional services. CBIZ CPAs P.C. and CBIZ, Inc. (and its subsidiaries) practice as an alternative practice structure in accordance with the AICPA Code of Professional Conduct and applicable law, regulations, and professional standards. CBIZ CPAs P.C. is a licensed independent CPA firm that provides attest services to its clients. CBIZ, Inc. and its subsidiary entities provide tax, advisory, and consulting services to their clients. CBIZ, Inc. and its subsidiary entities are not licensed CPA firms and, therefore, cannot provide attest services.
