China’s first quarter GDP numbers came out April 15th, which showed it beat expectations despite some Wall Street analysts lowering their expectations leading up to the data release just a day before. Headlines continue to show pessimism toward the Chinese economy even after 1Q24 growth YoY coming in at 5.3% vs. the expected 5.0%. It appears March numbers were a detractor to the quarter’s growth, which shows retail sales down and industrial output falling short. This comes in the face of inflation hitting a mark near 0.2%, falling from the near 2% average that the Chinese economy has experienced over the last 10 years.
In our last blog post, we discussed the demographics of China and as the close attention we should pay to urban populations. The urban jobless rate dropped to 5.2% from 5.3% during the first quarter. The chart below depicts urban jobless claims (Blue) compared to retail sales (Green). This accounted for data surveyed from 31 major cities. Again, this isn’t an earth-shattering move one way or another, but it should be good news to some extent, especially for retail sales going forward… or maybe not. What is interesting is that just in January 2024, China started to publish youth jobless data again after taking six months off from reporting such metrics. This came after the youth jobless numbers hit a record high at the start of last summer.
© Copyright CBIZ, Inc. All rights reserved. Use of the material contained herein without the express written consent of the firms is prohibited by law. This publication is distributed with the understanding that CBIZ is not rendering legal, accounting or other professional advice. The reader is advised to contact a tax professional prior to taking any action based upon this information. CBIZ assumes no liability whatsoever in connection with the use of this information and assumes no obligation to inform the reader of any changes in tax laws or other factors that could affect the information contained herein. Material contained in this publication is informational and promotional in nature and not intended to be specific financial, tax or consulting advice. Readers are advised to seek professional consultation regarding circumstances affecting their organization.
“CBIZ” is the brand name under which CBIZ CPAs P.C. and CBIZ, Inc. and its subsidiaries, including CBIZ Advisors, LLC, provide professional services. CBIZ CPAs P.C. and CBIZ, Inc. (and its subsidiaries) practice as an alternative practice structure in accordance with the AICPA Code of Professional Conduct and applicable law, regulations, and professional standards. CBIZ CPAs P.C. is a licensed independent CPA firm that provides attest services to its clients. CBIZ, Inc. and its subsidiary entities provide tax, advisory, and consulting services to their clients. CBIZ, Inc. and its subsidiary entities are not licensed CPA firms and, therefore, cannot provide attest services.