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July 30, 2019

Fill My Eyes With That Double Vision

In 1978, the band Foreigner released the song "Double Vision," and the chorus begins "Fill my eyes with that double vision. No disguise for that double vision." Double vision is an experience that applies as we attempt to forecast economic activity through the end of the year.

Nevertheless, at just over halfway through 2019, we reflect on the economic, industry, and socio-political predictions we made in December 2018, and take a shot at three new ones. Highlights below: 

SOLID PREDICTIONS FROM DECEMBER 2018

  • U.S Unemployment (2018 Prediction of 4.0% v. June 2019 Actual of 3.8%)
  • EUR/USD Exchange Rate (2018 Prediction of $1.15 v. June 2019 Actual of $1.13)
  • Tiger Woods wins a major (Won the 2019 Masters)

PREDICTIONS FROM DECEMBER 2018 WITH EXPOSURE

  • Fed. Funds Rate (2018 Prediction of 1.7% v. June 2019 Actual of 2.4%)
  • U.S. Savings Rate (2018 Prediction of 4.00% v. June 2019 Actual of 6.46%)
  • The average multiple reported by PitchBook is below 10x (Average multiple is topping 12x as of Q2 2019)

NEW PREDICTIONS FOR 2019

  • Federal Reserve lowers interest rates 25 basis points on July 31 and stops for the balance of the year
  • The Dow dips below 25,000 sometime in October or November
  • Substantial easing of relations with Iran and John Bolton gets fired

Click here to view the full list of prediction updates. 

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